Geopolitical conflicts dominate the chemical industry market.
🇮🇷 Iranian Officials Stance Straits of Hormuz Remaining Closed
According to multiple media reports, on August 11 local time, several senior Iranian officials made strong statements regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated that the United States is the root cause of regional insecurity, and that "the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened unless the United States changes its behavior and accepts Iran's conditions." He further clarified that the United States must end the war, pay off frozen Iranian funds, and meet other conditions conveyed through intermediaries.
Mokhber, an advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, also confirmed on social media on the same day that the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened until Iran's conditions are met.
Affected by this news, international oil prices climbed to a one-week high that day, with Brent crude rising 1.4% to $88.91 per barrel and WTI crude rising 1.3% to $83.20 per barrel.
📈 US EIA: Oil Supply Disruptions May Last Until End of 2027
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) significantly raised its oil price forecast in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, noting that the impact of Middle East oil supply disruptions will be more prolonged than anticipated.
Prolonged Supply Gap: The EIA predicts that even if global oil trade begins to recover in early 2027, approximately 600,000 barrels per day of production capacity in the Middle East will remain permanently shut down by the end of 2027, making rapid resumption of production difficult. In July of this year, approximately 5.5 million barrels per day of oil production capacity in the Middle East was shut down, exceeding 5% of global oil consumption.
Plunge in Transportation Volume: Data shows that oil transportation volume through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted from an average of 21.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025 to an average of 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026. The brief ceasefire has not significantly alleviated this historically unprecedented supply disruption.
Oil price forecasts revised upward: Based on the supply gap, the EIA has significantly raised its 2026 average Brent crude oil price forecast to $86.81 per barrel and its WTI crude oil price forecast to $80.88 per barrel.
