The chemical products market is experiencing a stark contrast: MDI and refrigerants are seeing strong price increases, while soda ash and titanium dioxide are mired in a slump.

📈 Strong Price Increases: Driven by Tight Supply and Demand

These products are experiencing a strong price cycle due to supply contraction, rising costs, or strong demand.

MDI (Core Raw Material for Polyurethane): Prices have fluctuated dramatically, but have generally trended upwards. Polymer MDI has rebounded more than 40% from its low point at the beginning of the year, with recent prices around RMB 17,300/ton; the average price of pure MDI is around RMB 20,000/ton, up about 8% year-on-year. The main reason for the increase is that global giants (BASF, Covestro, etc.) plan to shut down a total of 700,000 to 1.1 million tons of capacity in the next two years, leading to tighter supply, coupled with cost increases from raw materials such as benzene. On July 20, Shandong Wanhua's MDI was quoted at RMB 17,300/ton; the reference price for Shanghai MDI in the East China market was RMB 19,200-19,500/ton.

TDI (Raw Material for Sponge and Coatings): Prices have fluctuated upwards, with an average price of around RMB 16,000/ton in the first half of the year, up more than 30% year-on-year. Recent prices are around RMB 16,450/ton. Driving factors include concentrated maintenance shutdowns by manufacturers at the beginning of the year, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and rising raw material costs. On July 20th, the price of domestically produced refrigerants in the North China market was 16,400-16,500 yuan/ton.

Refrigerants: Supply is strictly constrained by quota systems, keeping prices high. R32 prices are around 64,000 yuan/ton, up 43.8% year-to-date. Long-term contract prices rose 2,900 yuan/ton in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter. Furthermore, supply is tight in the Middle East, with local prices reaching twice that of domestic prices.

Organosilicon: Industry-wide coordinated production cuts have driven a price recovery. DMC prices have rebounded from a low of 10,939 yuan/ton last year to approximately 15,300 yuan/ton. A recent industry meeting decided to increase production cuts to 60%, clarifying that DMC prices will return to 14,000 yuan/ton.

Ethylene glycol: Driven by both supply contraction and geopolitical factors, it has recently experienced a strong rebound. Futures prices rebounded from a low of 3,897 yuan/ton to around 4,400 yuan/ton. This was mainly due to low operating rates (approximately 63%) caused by plant maintenance, continued destocking at ports, and the increased crude oil costs driven by the situation in the Middle East.

📉 Weak and Pressured Products: Overcapacity Dominates

These products are under continuous price pressure due to oversupply and are at a cyclical trough.

Soda Ash: Prices have fallen to a near ten-year low, with the main futures contract hovering around the 1,000 yuan/ton mark. The fundamental reason is the oversupply and high inventory situation, with total enterprise inventory reaching 1.75-1.77 million tons, while downstream demand is weak.

Titanium Dioxide: A rare phenomenon of "price increases without profit increases" has emerged. Although there have been five rounds of price increases this year, with a cumulative increase of 3,500 yuan/ton, enterprise profits have actually declined. The main reason is the surge in raw material sulfur prices (up 92% since the end of February), which has severely eroded profits. Currently, the mainstream price for rutile rubber is 14,000-16,500 yuan/ton.

⚖️ Commodities Worth Watching

Chlor-alkali (caustic soda/PVC): The industry as a whole is at the bottom of the cycle, with ample supply and demand. However, there are expectations of supply contraction, and overseas export demand (especially from India) is growing rapidly, which is expected to improve the future supply and demand situation. Related companies such as Binhua Group are seeking transformation by investing in new materials projects.

Halogenated Butyl Rubber: As a specialty rubber with high technological barriers, it has recently attracted much attention due to Binhua Group's announcement of an investment of 1.822 billion yuan to build a 70,000-ton-per-year project. The market price is in the range of 31,500-33,000 yuan/ton. Domestic supply is abundant, but some imported supplies are in short supply due to supply chain disruptions.